Research

Working Papers

Working paper | 2026

The Labor Market Effects of AI Automation and Augmentation

WP34
Tomáš Oleš, Francesco Roncone
Abstract

Does artificial intelligence displace workers or make them more productive? Our results show that it can do both, through distinct channels that conventional exposure measures obscure. We distinguish these channels by semantically linking U.S. patent text to occupations’ tasks and tools, with patent–task matches capturing automation exposure and patent–tool matches capturing augmentation exposure. Exploiting the origins and diffusion of historical AI breakthroughs to predict contemporary local exposure, we estimate economically large but opposing effects. A one-standard-deviation increase in AI automation reduces occupational employment by 21 percent, with little effect on wages; AI augmentation instead raises wages by 8 percent, accompanied by modest employment increases. Moreover, we find that a larger AI share within each channel strengthens labor displacement through automation while shifting augmentation’s effects from employment growth toward wage gains. The labor-market consequences of AI therefore depend critically on the balance between automation and augmentation rather than overall exposure alone.

Keywords: Artificial Intelligence; Automation; Augmentation; Local Labor Markets; Occupational Tasks; Occupational Tools.
JEL Codes: J23, J24, J30, O33.

Working paper | June 12, 2026

Robots and the Wedge between Wages and Productivity: A European Analysis

WP33
Tomáš Oleš, Klaus Prettner, Martin Lábaj, Erika Majzlíková, Dávid Hojdan
Journal article | March 2026

In-Demand Skills: A Shield Against Automation — Evidence from Online Job Vacancies

Tomáš Oleš

Published in Journal for Labour Market Research, 60, Article 5 (2026)

Working paper | December 27, 2025

The Impact of Automation on the Position of Vulnerable Groups in the Labour Market in Slovakia and Czechia: Conceptual Framework

WP31
Lucia Kováčová, Michaela Grinaj
Journal article | August 2025

Impact of Robots and Artificial Intelligence on Labor and Skill Demand: Evidence from the UK

WP29
Martin Lábaj, Tomáš Oleš, Gabriel Procházka

Published in Eurasian Business Review, 15(4), 953–1001 (2025)

Journal article | August 2025

AI Innovation and the Labor Share in European Regions

WP27
Antonio Minniti, Klaus Prettner, Francesco Venturini

Published in European Economic Review, 177, 105043 (2025)

Working paper | March 4, 2025

The Impact of Robots on Workplace Injuries and Deaths: Empirical Evidence from Europe

WP30
M. De Simone, Dario Guarascio, Jelena Reljic
Working paper | November 22, 2024

Climate Change and Automation: The Emission Effects of Robot Adoption

WP28
Anna Abeliansky, Klaus Prettner, Ernesto Rodríguez-Crespo

Policy Briefs

Short, non-technical summaries of our research with implications for policy. Published by the Department of Economic Policy, Faculty of Economics and Finance, Bratislava University of Economics and Business.

Policy brief No. 05 | September 10, 2026

Using the Same Digital Tools Does Not Mean Doing the Same Work

Lucia Širochmanová, Martin Lábaj

What workers across the EU-27 say about their digital device use, their routines, and how much say they have over their own day. Drawing on the 2022 EU Labour Force Survey Job Skills Module, the brief shows that countries with similar levels of digital use can organize work very differently, from autonomous jobs to highly repetitive and constrained ones. Intensive digital use is linked to stronger sectoral wage positions, while repetitive task structures are linked to weaker relative pay.

Policy brief No. 04 | August 20, 2026

The Future of Work Depends on Which AI We Build

Tomáš Oleš, Francesco Roncone

AI automation and AI augmentation have fundamentally different effects on workers. Linking more than four decades of U.S. patent data to the tasks and tools of over 430 occupations, the brief shows that AI which automates tasks reduces employment, while AI which improves the tools workers use raises wages and employment. Both effects are stronger than for non-AI technologies and concentrated in highly educated occupations. The future of work depends less on how much AI is adopted than on which kinds of AI are developed and deployed.

Policy brief No. 03 | June 25, 2026

Artificial Intelligence Widens Regional Divides and Squeezes Workers’ Share of Income

Antonio Minniti, Klaus Prettner, Francesco Venturini

Evidence from AI patenting and the functional distribution of income across 273 European regions, 2000–2017. Regional AI innovation lowers the labor share, with declines falling disproportionately on medium- and high-skilled workers. Because AI innovation concentrates in a few hubs, it also risks widening regional gaps, raising the question of how governments can support AI-driven innovation while ensuring its benefits are broadly shared.

Policy brief No. 02 | June 15, 2026

Industrial Robots Widen the Gap Between What European Workers Produce and What They Are Paid

Tomáš Oleš, Klaus Prettner, Martin Lábaj, Erika Majzlíková, Dávid Hojdan

Sector-level evidence on robot adoption and the wage–productivity wedge across 23 EU countries, 1995–2020. Higher robot intensity is associated with a larger gap between value added per worker and the wages workers receive, most strongly in manufacturing. The link is not explained by outsourcing or capital deepening and appears causal, pointing to policies that ensure productivity gains from automation are shared with workers.

Policy brief No. 01 | May 20, 2025

New Technology Does Not Just Replace Workers—It Also Creates New Opportunities

Tomáš Oleš, Martin Lábaj

How automation and augmentation technologies shape employment across Europe. Using AI-based text analysis that matches occupational tasks to patent texts, the brief builds Europe-specific measures of exposure to job-replacing and job-enhancing technologies for seven EU countries over 1993–2023. Occupations complemented by new technologies saw employment grow, while those exposed to replacing technologies experienced significant job losses, with AI showing the strongest effects in both directions.

Projects

Project | APVV | 2024–2027

Towards a Shared Prosperity: Technology, Inequality and Labor Market

APVV-23-0090
Principal investigator: Martin Lábaj

The project provides new empirical evidence on the effects of different technologies on employment and wage inequality, displacement of workers, and creation of new work, and explores the role of institutions, strategies, and policies in shifting the trends toward an inclusive society and shared prosperity.

Project | MIT-Slovakia Seed Fund | MIT Global Seed Funds 2025–2026

Expertise Divergences in Europe? Learning from the U.S. Labor Market

David Autor (MIT), Tomáš Oleš, Martin Lábaj, Francesco Roncone, Lucia Širochmanová

Over the last four decades, employment in routine-intensive occupations has contracted across industrialized countries, yet wages in these occupations have not consistently declined. The task-based framework of Autor and Thompson (2025) explains this puzzle: wage and employment changes depend on the expertise level of the tasks that are automated relative to those retained and added. In collaboration with the MIT Department of Economics, the project provides first evidence on this mechanism for European countries and adds a local dimension, asking why wages within and across occupations evolve differently across regions through uneven expertise adjustments.

Cooperation | UNIVNET & ESFRI research infrastructures

UNIVNET Platform and Cooperation with European Research Infrastructures

Faculty of Economics and Finance · SecureData Lab

The Faculty contributes SecureData Lab as a data and computing infrastructure to the emerging cooperation between the UNIVNET platform and the National Contact Point for European XFEL and other European Research Infrastructures (NCPXFEL & ERI).

Project | VAIA

Stagnant Wages in the Face of Rising Labour Productivity: The Role of Automation Technologies

Klaus Prettner
Project | VAIA

Improving the Efficiency of Healthcare by Assessing the Importance of Healthcare Accessibility

Richard Kališ
Project | National Bank of Slovakia

Enhancing Cutting-edge Research Collaboration between MIT and EUBA in the Field of Automation

Martin Lábaj, Erika Majzlíková, Tomáš Oleš, Tomáš Ševček